Updated Jan 15, 2025
Current Status: “Hot Dog Days” & Assessment Mode
The Bottom Line: Significant warming and a “rain-to-peak” event have created a complex and dangerous snowpack structure. We are currently seeing a classic “Upside Down” snowpack—heavy, cohesive slabs sitting on top of weaker, soft snow.
My Recommendation: This is not the week to push into big terrain. It is a week to enjoy the resort groomers (“Hot Dog Days”), go snowshoeing in Simple terrain or stick to low-angle trees. But good luck with that if you do.
Field Report: The “Rain Crust” Problem
We all know the feeling. You hike for hours, expecting powder, and step out onto a breakable crust that sucks the energy right out of your legs. But what lies beneath that crust is more concerning than just bad skiing.
On January 15, I dug a test pit to see exactly what this unseasonable warming event did to our snowpack. The results were a textbook example of instability.
What We Found (The Snow Pit)
- The Event: A massive warm front pushed freezing levels up to 3700m, raining on almost all skiable terrain.
- The Surface: A breakable melt-freeze crust.
- 15cm Down: A “Pencil Hard” slab (very stiff).
- 35cm Down: A “Fist Soft” layer (very weak).
In a healthy snowpack, we want the snow to get harder as you go deeper (hard base, soft top). Right now, we have the opposite. We have a heavy, cohesive shield sitting on top of a weak foundation.
When I performed a compression test, the block failed cleanly and suddenly. This indicates that the bond between that rain crust and the snow beneath it is poor.
Watch the Analysis
I filmed the entire process—from the frustration of the post-hole to the moment the block popped—so you can see exactly what an “Upside Down” snowpack looks like in the field.
The Verdict: How to Play It Safe This Week
Why This Matters (The Science)
Nature is telling us to slow down. The “Gas Pedal” might be urging you to find steep lines, but the “Brake” needs to be firmly applied right now.
- Avoid Avalanche Terrain: Stay off slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
- Beware of Overhead Hazard: Even if you are on flat ground, do not hang out under bowls or chutes that could slide from above.
- Embrace the “Simple”: This is the perfect time to practice your navigation, work on your breathwork, or take the kids snowshoeing.
Want to Learn More?
If the terms “Compression Test” or “Pencil Hard” sound like a foreign language to you, you aren’t alone. Understanding what the snow is telling you is the key to a lifetime of safe exploration. Explore some of our posts on avalanche safety.
Check out our Beyond the Boundaries intro course to build your foundation before you step out of bounds.
Disclaimer: This report represents a single point of data in time and space. It is NOT a substitute for the official avalanche forecast. Always check Avalanche Canada for the daily bulletin before you head out.
